Ontario Real Estate
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The Ontario Real Estate Brief — Week of September 7, 2026
TRREB's August 2026 report is in — the freshest resale data of the season — showing tighter inventory pushing the market toward better balance even as prices stayed soft. The Bank of Canada confirmed its seventh straight hold at 2.25% on September 2, with the next decision not due until October 28. Also inside: where bond yields and fixed mortgage pricing sit this week, a September home maintenance checklist, and the latest on GTA commercial vacancy across industrial, office and retail.
Market snapshot
GTA Market — August 2026 (TRREB Data)
GTA REALTORS® reported 5,057 home sales in August 2026 — down 2.1% year-over-year — while new listings fell to 12,075, down 14.1% year-over-year. Active listings also pulled back, down 11% from a year earlier to 24,482, leaving the market with about 4.8 months of supply — balanced territory, but tighter than last August. TRREB noted that if inventory keeps tightening, renewed price growth could follow in the months ahead.
The average GTA selling price was $993,410, down 2.7% year-over-year, while the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was down 4.5% year-over-year to $925,900. On a seasonally adjusted, month-over-month basis the HPI Composite was essentially flat versus July, and the average price actually edged up 1.1% — a continuation of the stabilizing trend flagged in prior updates. Homes took longer to sell than a year ago: average days on market rose to 35 in August, up from 33 in August 2025, even as homes still sold for about 97% of list price.
Mortgage & bond yields
What the rate environment means for you
The Bank of Canada delivered as expected on September 2, holding its policy rate at 2.25% for a seventh straight meeting. Governor Macklem pointed to a strengthening economy — Q2 GDP grew 3.3% annualized on resilient consumer spending, a rebound in housing activity and sharp gains in exports and business investment — but flagged stronger upside risks to inflation, citing the conflict in the Middle East keeping energy prices elevated and new U.S. tariffs following the breakdown of trade talks. The next decision, paired with a fresh Monetary Policy Report, is set for October 28. The Canada 5-year bond yield, which anchors fixed mortgage pricing, eased slightly to roughly 3.41% as of September 4 — still elevated enough to keep fixed mortgage rates sticky in the mid-3% range.
My take: August's numbers confirm the trend I've been flagging: inventory is tightening faster than demand is cooling, and that's the setup for renewed price growth if it holds through the fall. Sales and new listings both fell year-over-year, but new listings fell more than twice as fast — that gap is what pushed months of supply and the sales-to-new-listings ratio in sellers' favour compared to a year ago, even with the average price still down 2.7%. The Bank of Canada's hold was no surprise, but the tone shifted: a strong Q2 GDP print gives them room to stay patient, while the inflation uptick means the next cut is further off than it looked a few months ago — plan around 2.25% holding through fall. For buyers, the window of easy negotiating leverage is narrowing; for sellers, especially in segments with limited new supply, this is a better month to list than August was.
Household debt insights
The debt picture — and what it means for buyers
Canadian household debt-to-income ratios remain among the highest in the developed world. Forced sellers are creating select buying opportunities, and lenders are applying more scrutiny than they have in a decade. Know your numbers before you sign.
Home maintenance tip
September checklist — protect your investment
- ✓Book your furnace/HVAC tune-up before the fall service rush hits
- ✓Clean gutters and downspouts before leaves start falling in earnest
- ✓Check window and door weatherstripping ahead of the heating season
- ✓Drain and store outdoor hoses, and shut off exterior water lines before the first frost
Commercial market
Commercial pulse — industrial, office & retail
Toronto's downtown office market continues its recovery: vacancy fell 60 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 13.6% in Q2 2026 — the lowest level since Q4 2022 — as flight-to-quality demand keeps filling amenity-rich Class A towers (Cushman & Wakefield). Industrial remains the standout turnaround story: GTA vacancy sat at 4.9% in Q2 2026, down from an 11-year high of 5.1% the prior quarter, as absorption hit a new high of 2.4 million sq. ft. — 2.3 million sq. ft. above a year earlier — marking eight straight quarters of positive demand. Retail remains the steady performer heading into H2 2026, with rents rising in roughly a third of format types and markets surveyed nationally and improving foot traffic supporting ground-floor demand (CBRE). Q3 commercial data hasn't published yet; these remain the latest available figures.
Sources: TRREB Market Watch (August 2026, released September 4, 2026); Bank of Canada (September 2, 2026 hold; next decision October 28, 2026) & Canadian bond yields (5-year, September 4, 2026); Cushman & Wakefield Toronto Office MarketBeat (Q2 2026) & Toronto Industrial MarketBeat (Q2 2026); CBRE Canadian Retail report (2026).
Previous updates
Week of August 31, 2026 — GTA snapshot from TRREB's July 2026 data (sales -0.9% YoY, avg. price -4.5%, new listings -17.8%), the Bank of Canada heading into its September 2 rate decision (99% odds of a seventh hold at 2.25%), Q2 2026 commercial vacancy data across industrial, office and retail, and a September maintenance checklist.
Week of August 10, 2026 — GTA snapshot from TRREB's newly released July 2026 data (sales -0.9% YoY, avg. price -4.5%, new listings -17.8%), the Bank of Canada holding steady at 2.25% ahead of its September 2 decision, Q2 2026 commercial vacancy data across industrial, office and retail, and a mid-August maintenance checklist.
Week of August 3, 2026 — GTA snapshot from TRREB's June 2026 data (sales +9.4% YoY, avg. price -3.9%), the Bank of Canada's confirmed July 15 hold at 2.25% ahead of its September 2 decision, Q2 2026 commercial vacancy data across industrial, office and retail, and an early-August maintenance checklist.
Week of July 27, 2026 — GTA snapshot from TRREB's June 2026 data (sales +9.4% YoY, avg. price -3.9%), the Bank of Canada's confirmed July 15 hold at 2.25%, Q2 2026 commercial vacancy data across industrial, office and retail, and a late-July maintenance checklist.
Week of July 20, 2026 — GTA snapshot from TRREB's June 2026 data (sales +9.4% YoY, avg. price -3.9%), the Bank of Canada's confirmed July 15 hold at 2.25%, Q2 2026 commercial vacancy data across industrial, office and retail, and a July home maintenance checklist.
Week of July 13, 2026 — GTA snapshot from TRREB's June 2026 data (sales +9.4% YoY, avg. price -3.9%), the Bank of Canada's rate decision looming two days out, and fresh Q2 2026 commercial vacancy data across industrial, office and retail.
Week of July 6, 2026 — GTA snapshot from TRREB's June 2026 data (sales +9.4% YoY, avg. price -3.9%), the Bank of Canada's sixth straight hold at 2.25% ahead of its July 15 decision, and commercial vacancy trends across industrial, office and retail.
Week of July 1, 2026 — GTA snapshot from TRREB's May 2026 data, the Bank of Canada's June rate hold, and commercial vacancy trends across industrial, office and retail.
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